2022 MLB Playoffs: Padres vs. Mets Odds, Line, Wild Card Series Game 3 Picks, Predictions from Proven Model

Citi Field is the center of the baseball universe on Sundays. After three Wild Card series ended Saturday, only one will go to Game 3, and that pits the New York Mets against the San Diego Padres. New York enters the series with home field advantage as the higher seed, and the Mets will deploy Chris Bassitt with their season on the line. San Diego is looking to advance after the arm of Joe Musgrove and a talented lineup on the road.

First pitch is at 7:07 PM ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists New York as a -135 favorite (risk $135 to win $100) on the moneyline, while the over/under, or the total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, is 6.5 in the latest odds of the Padres against the Mets. Before making any Mets vs. Padres picks, you should see the MLB predictions and betting tips from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection model simulated every MLB game 10,000 times and entered the final week of the regular season with an 18-8 streak on MLB’s top-rated money lines, returning almost $700 on $100 bettors. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of the top three bets to win all of last season. Anyone who has followed him has seen tremendous returns.

Now, the model has zeroed in on the Mets vs. Padres and has just locked in its MLB picks and predictions. You can head over to SportsLine now to see the model selection. Here are some MLB odds and betting lines for Padres vs. Mets:

  • Mets vs. Padres money line: New York -135, San Diego +125
  • Mets vs. Padres over/under: 6.5 runs
  • Mets vs. Padres run line: New York -1.5 (+162)
  • NYM: The Mets are 55-28 at home this season
  • SD: The Padres are 46-37 in road games this season
  • Mets vs. Padres: See the picks here

Featured game | New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres

Why you should root for the Padres

The Padres can be comfortable with Musgrove on the mound. The 2022 All-Star posted a 2.93 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 30 starts, holding opponents to a .667 OPS in the process. Musgrove averaged 9.1 strikeouts and just 2.1 walks per nine innings, and he finished the season allowing just one run over his final 22 innings of work. With Musgrove gone, the Padres also have a strong bullpen contingent, with No. 3 in the National League in wins above replacement by relief pitchers.

The Padres’ relievers combined for a 3.83 ERA and 45.1% ground ball percentage this season, and San Diego can also find comfort in a quality offense. The Padres finished in the top five in the NL in doubles, walks, slugging and on-base percentage, and San Diego also found success against Mets starter Chris Bassitt. In two starts, Bassitt has allowed nine earned runs in 10.1 innings against the Padres this season.

Why you should root for the Mets

New York is a balanced, talented team, and that was evident in the team’s 101-win regular season performance. On the pitching side, the Mets will rely on a stellar starter in Chris Bassitt, who posted a 3.42 ERA in 2022. Bassitt was even better at home with a 2.95 ERA, and since the start of August has 2, 70 ERA. Over the last five seasons, Bassitt has a 3.29 ERA and he has allowed a .656 OPS to opponents this season.

The Padres rank in the bottom five of the National League in home runs and slugging percentage, and Bassitt is also backed by a strong bullpen. New York’s relievers have combined for a 3.55 ERA this season, and the Mets have one of the best late-inning options in the sport in Edwin Diaz. He had a whopping 118 strikeouts in 62 innings of work with a 1.31 ERA in 2022. With a productive offense that led the league in hits, batting average and strikeouts, the Mets are tough to beat, especially at home.

How to make Mets vs. Padres picks

SportsLine’s model leans on the total, projecting a total of 8.1 runs. It also says that one side of the money line has all the value. You can get MLB’s model picks only at SportsLine.

So who wins Mets vs. Padres? And which country has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which Padres vs. Mets side you should jump on, all from the model that crushed your MLB picks, and find out.

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