First-ever MLB draft lottery: Date, #1 pick odds and everything else you need to know

The World Series and the 2022 MLB season are complete and the offseason is underway. There is already one significant free agent signing Edwin Diaz is returning to the Mets on a five-year, $102 million deal. This is the largest assistant contract. Here are important offseason dates and deadlines to know.

As part of the new collective labor agreement, MLB and the MLBPA agreed to a revised amateur draft order in an attempt to curb uncompetitive behavior (ie, tanking). With slight changes here and there, the draft’s annual order was set in reverse order of the previous year’s rankings since the draft was first introduced in 1965. This is no longer the case.

Here is the new order draft structure:

  • Choice 1-6: Lottery
  • Choice 7-18: Offseason, non-lottery teams in reverse order of previous year’s rankings
  • Choice 19-22: Wild Card Series Losers
  • Choice 23-26: Division Series Losers
  • Choice 27-28: Championship Series Losers
  • Select 29: World Series loser
  • Choose 30: World Series Winner

Here’s what you need to know about the 2023 draft order, which will be finalized when the lottery takes place at the Winter Meetings in December.

Date of lottery

The first lottery in MLB draft history will take place on Tuesday, December 6, during the San Diego Winter Meetings. The lottery itself will be broadcast live on MLB Network at 8:30 PM ET. Get ready for six general managers sitting sheepishly on stage, hoping their team is bad enough to secure the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft.

Lottery odds

All 18 teams in the offseason have a shot at the No. 1 pick, though the worst teams have the best lottery odds. Here are the odds of securing the No. 1 pick for those 18 offseason teams:

The tiebreaker is the previous year’s record, giving the Pirates (61-101 in 2021) a 16.5 percent chance for the No. 1 pick, while the Redskins (83-79 in 2021) have a 13.2 percent chance, despite that the two teams finished with identical 62-100 records in 2022. The Orioles had the No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft and selected Jackson Holiday (Matt’s son).

Choices 19-30 are set

The lottery will determine the first six picks, then the next 12 picks are the remaining 12 offseason teams in reverse order of the rankings. It’s the easy stuff. Picks 19-30 are determined by each team’s postseason finish, and within each “tier” teams are sorted by revenue sharing status and then by regular season record. Here are picks 19-30:

19. Rays (Wild Card Series loser, gets revenue sharing, 86-76 in 2022)
20. Blue Jays (Wild Card Series loser, no revenue sharing, 92-70 in 2022)
21. Cardinals (Wild Card Series loser, no revenue sharing, 93-69 in 2022)
22. Mets (Wild Card Series loser, revenue sharing paid, 101-61 in 2022)

23. Mariners (Division Series loss, revenue sharing, 90-72 in 2022)
24. Guardians (Division Series loser, revenue sharing received, 92-70 in 2022)
25. Braves (Division Series loser, revenue sharing, 101-61 in 2022)
26. Dodgers (Division Series loser, revenue sharing paid, 111-51 in 2022)

27. Padres (Championship Series loser, gets revenue sharing, 89-73 in 2022)
28. Yankees (Championship Series loser, revenue sharing paid, 99-63 in 2022)

29. Phillies (loser in the World Series)
30. Astros (World Series Winner)

It should be noted that the Mets and Dodgers’ first-round picks will be moved back 10 spots next year because they exceeded the competitive tax threshold of $230 million by at least $40 million in 2022. So the Mets will pick number 32 instead of number 22, and the Dodgers will pick number 36 instead of number 26.

All first round picks are protected

Teams no longer surrender first-round picks when signing a free agent tied for draft pick compensation. Teams now give up lower-round picks and international bonus pool money when they sign a qualified free agent. Here is our example of a qualified offerwhich includes a breakdown of free agent compensation rules.

Top prospects for 2023 recruitment

It’s still far, far too early to know who will go No. 1 overall in 2023. There are entire college and high school seasons to be played between now and the draft next July. For a good look ahead, however, here’s RJ Anderson’s super early look at the top prospects in next year’s draft.

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