MLB Picks: The best bets for Game 3 of the Padres-Mets Wild Card series on Sunday

The 2022 Major League Baseball playoffs are upon us. That means a lot of things to a lot of people, but among a certain subset of sports fans, we now have more than a month of playoff gambling considerations. We’ve had a pretty winning streak the last two postseasons, so let’s make it three in a row in the black.

I came out the other side of a grueling regular season at SportsLine at +582 for the season. I was well over +1000 at one point and dropped embarrassingly close to even, but had a few late runs. It’s been a roller coaster, but in the end, a consistently positive season is a success. Game selection will continue to be for SportsLine subscribers.

Right here, we’ll focus on overall scores (over/under) and player stats. We had a bad start, but we are responsible and we will continue to monitor. That’s -183 so far at 3-5. It was 1-3 day one and 2-2 Saturday, so we’ll keep things moving in a positive direction.

There’s only one game on Sunday, so it’s all Padres at Mets.

OVER 6.5 runs (-125)

The playoffs have provided their fair share of low-scoring affairs thus far, but this streak came to an end in both games with each team producing a seven-run effort. We saw eight home runs, with the Padres hitting five of them.

Both starters here are capable in Mets star Chris Bassitt (15-9, 3.42) and Padres star Joe Musgrove (10-7, 2.93), which is why we get the desired total here. It doesn’t even have to be a high score as something like 4-3 or 5-2 gets us a winner.

Basit is also quite inconsistent. He’ll drop some gems, but he also gets into some crap. One of which came against the Padres earlier this year, when he allowed seven runs on eight hits in 3 1/3 innings. Musgrove, in his own right, had a poor game against the Mets, allowing four runs on five hits in 5 1/3 innings at Citi Field on July 24.

Even if the starters pitch well, I expect both offenses to work them hard in the early innings and neither to break through on a deep outing like Yu Darvish did in Game 1.

The Padres bullpen worked really hard in Game 2 and wasn’t that good or deep. In the Mets end, Edwin Díaz threw 28 hits and had to go out for a second inning of work after waiting out a long Mets rally in the bullpen. Adam Ottavino threw 35 pitches and looked really shaky. They hardly trust anyone else.

I’m not saying we’re in for an offensive deluge. It’s possible that both Bassitt and Musgrove could come to an agreement. We don’t need one. I like a combined effort of at least seven runs.

I think we’ll see at least a decent number of runs and here’s my pick for the most likely to score. Lindor is swinging the bat well right now and is coming off a two-hit game where he can start scoring. He doesn’t run as much as he used to, but he has stolen 16 bases this season and the Padres are brutal against the stolen base. They’ve allowed 89 this season in 102 attempts, good for a league-worst 13 percent caught stealing. The Mets are 3 for 3 in steals so far in the series.

Lindor is also 6-for-17 (.353) with a .389 on-base percentage and two home runs against Musgrove in his career.

Josh Bell, UNDER 0.5 Hits (+120)

Bell got much better innings in the postseason, including Max Scherzer’s huge opposite-field blast in Game 1. He’s still just 2-for-8 in the series and hit just .192 in the regular season after the Padres acquired him via trade. He has gone hitless in nine of his last 12 games. Since he got a hit in each of the first two games, I’m just playing the odds here.

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