After completing Everton’s draw against Liverpool, Jones Knows reckons Rhodri is a huge price to score in Manchester City’s easy win against Aston Villa.
Aston Villa v Manchester City, Saturday 5.30pm, Live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Aston Villa recorded an expected goal figure of under 1.00 for the fourth time in their five games this season against Arsenal, again failing to display attacking rhythm, confidence or chemistry. Steven Gerrard is struggling for answers and things could go wrong at Villa Park in this case.
One area of weakness not seen by markets in a struggling side is their lack of defensive organization defending standard positions, which brings plenty of strike opportunities to the table in the markets for shots and goals of opposing players. Despite their run of good matches, Aston Villa have conceded the second-most shots from set-pieces this season, including three goals. Gabriel himself had four strikes on Wednesday night for Arsenal as the Gunners caused Villa so many problems when the ball was released into their half. For all their beautiful passing and delicate football, Manchester City scored the most goals of anyone in the Premier League last season from set pieces (21), so their players are always worth keeping an eye on when the price is right.
The player that stands out to me here is Rodri, who, along with the two centre-backs, is always in the mix from City’s standard squad. There are several ways to attack his prices. Since he is also a threat, striking from a distance, 6/5 with Sky Bet to have two strikes should give you a run. He has 18 hits in his last 10 games.
Those who want to dream should consider 28/1 with Sky Bet for him to score a header. Of those 18 shots, five of them were headed with two goals scored. OK, the sample size is pretty small, but a player who is City’s biggest threat by standards with such a decent recent record should be under 28/1 to register his third headed goal in his last 11 starts.
SCORE FORECAST: 0-3 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Rodri to score with a header (28/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Brighton v Leicester Sunday 14:00 Live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Brighton have taken 28 points from their last 14 Premier League games since April – only Man City (36), Tottenham (31), Liverpool (31) have collected more. Leicester, meanwhile, have had a terrible start to the season, playing with such a lack of intensity that they have lost four on the bounce in timid fashion.
Brighton, well trained and super crafty, usually feast on teams struggling for confidence with players who may not be pulling in the same direction. But there is absolutely no way I’m backing them at 4/5 with Sky Bet to win this game. This is not my first rodeo with Brighton.
The familiar concern about wasteful finishing rears its head again at the start of this season. Brighton fail to take advantage of the chances created with great probability. Over the past three seasons at home, Brighton have produced an expected goals figure of 90.34 but have scored just 62 goals, showing a frighteningly poor performance in front of goal relative to the quality of chances created.
I haven’t checked the numbers, but Solly March has to be responsible for at least 80 of those expected goals, right? He has now reached an expected goals tally of 1.38 this season with three big missed chances – no Premier League player has a higher xG this season without scoring. That my weekly estimate of 10/1 anytime failed to make the cut is pretty stunning. It remains that price this weekend by the way.
Contrast Brighton’s wastefulness with the fact that Leicester have scored in 25 of their last 28 away games in the Premier League. That suggests just one goal from the Foxes could be enough to avoid defeat.
All of the above will probably become meaningless when March rolls around at home hat trick at 500/1 though.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Manchester United v Arsenal Sunday 4.30pm Live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Who knew Erik Ten Haag’s path was covered in so much dirt?
I think a lot of us were expecting full-strength football with a tall defensive line, but what Ten Hag have resorted to so far is a no-frills, fairly direct style of in-your-face aggression and defense. It’s probably smart management, as something had to change stylistically.
Manchester United are now rough and tumble and hard to score on. Arsenal, however, will need to be smart and clinical to break through – but a goal might just do it. It would be a huge statement to walk away with three points.
The match odds look decent to me, although United and Arsenal are trading around the same mark at 8/5 with Sky Bet. This is a hard paying game. It’s too hard for me to get involved so I’m heading to the betting card market where United’s new found aggressive approach has them keen to get more cards than Arsenal 11/10 with Sky Bet.
Since the 4-0 loss at Brentford, no team has received more yellow cards (9) or committed more fouls (40) than Manchester United, with Ten Hag’s side winning the card count race in all of their last three games. Although Arsenal are regarded as a side with disciplinary problems, the figures show that they only rank 12th in yellow cards shown since the start of last season, taking into account the ever-present Premier League sides. United look fantastic value considering the cards.