Prisco’s Week 5 NFL picks: Jets upset Tua-less Dolphins, Bills beat Steelers, Rams cover vs. Cowboys

So much for the idea of ​​getting out of a bad week with a good one.

Make it two bad ones in a row.

Last week wasn’t as bad as the week before, so there is progress. But calling 5-9-2 against the progress of the spread tells you how terrified I was the week before. I went 9-7 straight and 3-2 with my best bets as part of the Pick Six Podcast. This brings my season ATS record to 27-34-3, my head-to-head record to 33-30-1, and my best bets record is now 13-9.

Let’s shoot for .500 ATS this week. Baby steps. Baby steps.

Thursday, 8:20 PM ET (Amazon Prime)

Featured game | Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have struggled in many ways this season, going 1-2-1 with the heat on the coaching staff and front office. The health of running back Jonathan Taylor brings attention in this one. However, it is not that effective. The Broncos play well on defense, but their offense is struggling. At home, on a short week, Russell Wilson will find a way to win it.

Select: Broncos 24, Colts 20

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network, FuboTV)

Featured game | Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants

The Giants have big problems at defender with Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor injured. There’s a chance Jones plays with a bad ankle, but it doesn’t matter who plays. The Packers have played well on defense, and the offense has shown some signs of life recently. The Packers take it.

Select: Packers 31, Giants 21

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Featured game | Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers

It’s a tough road for Steelers rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett made his debut. The Bills have injury issues on defense, but they still have a talented front that could make life miserable for Pickett. Buffalo’s offense has slowed down somewhat the last two games, but this is a chance to pick it back up. Expect Josh Allen to have a good day as the Bills spoil Pickett’s debut.

Select: Bills 33, Steelers 17

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Featured game | Cleveland Browns vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers went on the road and beat the Texans last week, but this trip will be much more difficult. The Browns have struggled defensively this season, which could be good for Justin Herbert. Expect the Chargers to play well again here after picking up a tough win on the road.

Select: Chargers 27, brown 21

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Featured game | Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans

The Jaguars are coming off a sloppy loss against the Eagles that they let get away with them after leading 14-0. The Texans played well in their comeback against the Chargers, but it’s a tough road trip against a team that will be ready to get back on track. Expect a better performance from Trevor Lawrence until the Jaguars win it.

Select: Jaguars 30, Texans 21

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Featured game | Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears

The Bears have been lifeless in their passing game, which limits what they can do — as we saw last week on the road in a loss to the Giants. The Vikings played in London last week, so they had to deal with the long journey. But they are a much better team. Minnesota’s defense hasn’t played that well this season, but that changes here.

Select: Vikings 24, Bears 10

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Featured game | New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions

The Lions score a lot of goals, but they can’t stop anyone. They might get a break if they face Bailey Zappé at quarterback for the Patriots. But the way the Lions play won’t matter. The Patriots have yet to run the football. New England will win close.

Select: Patriots 24, Lions 20

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Featured game | New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are playing their second straight non-division road trip, which is always a challenge. The Saints play after returning from London, which will not be easy. The Saints haven’t come close to living up to expectations this season, but this is the perfect place for their defense to step up and win a game. I think they do. Saints take it.

Select: Saints 26, Seahawks 17

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Featured game | New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins will start Teddy Bridgewater in place of the injured Tua Tagovailoa, who is dealing with concussion issues. Bridgewater is more than capable. The Jets have been playing better lately and Zach Wilson has done some good things in Pittsburgh. Look for the Jets to continue to have momentum here as they pull off the upset.

Select: Jets 24, Dolphins 23

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Featured game | Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons

It’s a big game for first place in the division. This is hard to believe. But the Falcons played better than expected, while the Bucs didn’t play as well. But this could be a good spot for the Bucs. Look for the offense to roll and the defense to rebound.

Select: Bucs 34, Falcons 20

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Featured game | Washington Commanders vs. Tennessee Titans

The Commanders have lost three in a row and their season could be on the line here. They have a Titans team win a division against the Colts. This can be a good place for commanders to gain victory. The pressure is on and they get it. Upset specifically.

Select: Commanders 28, Titans 24

Sunday, 4:05 PM ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Featured game | Carolina Panthers vs. San Francisco 49ers

It’s a long road trip in a short week for the 49ers after beating the Rams on Monday night. This would normally mean disappointment. But their defense will dominate Carolina’s offense. Baker Mayfield will be here for a long day. This will be a low scoring game, but the 49ers will win with their defense.

Select: 49ers 21, Panthers 13

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Featured game | Arizona Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are riding high as the last undefeated team, but it won’t be an easy ride. The Cardinals seemed to get things right last week in the second half against the Panthers. But it’s a big step up in the competition. Look for the Eagles to move on — even with the Cowboys on their feet next week.

Select: Eagles 30, Cardinals 23

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (-4.5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Featured game | Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys

The Rams are playing on a short week and looked awful in Monday night’s loss to the 49ers. The offensive line is bad, which is never a good thing against the Cowboys. Dallas won all three games with Cooper Rush at quarterback, but that’s where it ends. I think the Rams will find a way to limit Rush and the offense as Matthew Stafford will finally get it done on the other end.

Select: Rams 27, Cowboys 21

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, FuboTV)

Featured game | Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals turned their season around with two straight wins, mostly because the offense started playing better. That doesn’t bode well for a struggling Ravens defense. Look for Joe Burrow to win a penalty here with Lamar Jackson. First to 35 wins. The Bengalis are.

Select: Bengals 36, Ravens 33

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, FuboTV)

Featured game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs return home to a 1-1 draw on the road, but looked terrific in their win over the Bucks last Sunday night. The Raiders beat the Broncos for their first win last week, but it’s a tough road trip to try and keep things going. The Chiefs have brought the offense back to the top level, which does not bode well for the Raiders’ defense. Look for Patrick Mahomes to have a great night.

Select: Chiefs 33, Raiders 23

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