In case you’ve been living under a rock, there’s an ongoing shift in college football that will dictate the future of the sport. For years, the Power Five conferences (SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12) have dominated college football. In the near future, it appears that two mega-conferences are being developed to compete with each other on the football field and at the negotiating table.
It was announced last week that USC and UCLA would become members of the Big Ten in 2024. That was the conference’s response to the news of the SEC adding Oklahoma and Texas in 2025 that came out last fall.
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Neither conference is complete with additions, and programs from the ACC have made their way to the plate.
The sources tell NoleGameday that Florida State is in the process of exploring a move to a new conference. The Seminoles have been in discussions with the SEC and Big Ten since last summer. Both conferences have expressed interest in adding the university to their pool of current members, along with other ACC schools.
The SEC is trying to do everything it can to get ahead of the Big Ten’s expansion plans. There has been some discussion around the conference pushing for Oklahoma and Texas to join in 2023 to outpace the Big Ten’s addition of USC and UCLA. The SEC doesn’t want to let the Big Ten creep into the Southeastern TV markets and will do everything in its power to stop that from becoming a reality.
While the SEC would represent more regional matchups for Florida State, the Big Ten offers a tradition of excellence that could increase the university’s academic reach.
NoleGameday has been informed that the conference is considering a discount to offer membership to the Seminoles despite the fact that they are not an AAU (Association of American Universities) school. This is not something that all current conference members are necessarily familiar with.
13 of the 14 programs currently in the Big Ten are AAU affiliated. Nebraska was previously a member of the organization, but the school was expelled in 2011 for not meeting certain requirements. Alas, that didn’t stop the Cornhuskers from leaving the Big 12 for the Big Ten that year.
ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg reported last summer that the conference is only interested in adding schools that are AAU members outside of Notre Dame. So far, that has been true, as USC and UCLA are also members of the organization. If the Big Ten is willing to make a special landing designation for Florida State, it would be interesting to see how the powers that be navigate that decision.
Notre Dame is a wildcard in all of this, as neither conference is quite sure where the school will finish just yet. That being said, the Big Ten makes a lot of sense since Notre Dame is in the Midwest.
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With the SEC and Big Ten taking over other conferences for their best programs, two mega-conferences that boast up to 20 programs each are being assembled right before our eyes. TV deals from ESPN (SEC) and Fox (Big 10) during the next round of media negotiations are expected to net each conference in the region of $100 million annually per program.
The “rest” of the ACC teams are expected to remain in the conference and form a partnership with the remnants of the Pac-12. There are other reports that the Big Ten is looking to add multiple schools from the Pac-12. Depending on how that situation shakes out, the remaining programs from both sides will combine to make up a “mid-tier” conference.
Even with interest from the SEC and the Big Ten, Florida State must find a way to legally circumvent the ACC Grant of Rights, which does not expire until 2036. In 2013, each president or chancellor signed an agreement to transfer their media rights to respective schools over the ACC with an initial expiration date of June 30, 2027. However, the agreement was extended for another nine years in 2016 to provide increased television revenue and launch the ACC Network.
The assignment of rights must be performed based on ESPN’s agreement. For example, if new teams are added to the conference through a PAC-12 merger, the ACC’s current grant of rights would be void. In the same scenario, a new government of the republic will have to be prepared and this will allow the state of Florida to freely leave for a new conference. The reality is that ESPN has all the power here. Technically, the company could change course on its deal with ACC if the profit margins from the SEC expansion outweigh the costs of abandoning ACC’s network. And they probably will.
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With the SEC’s massive deal with ESPN in mind, the sources went on to say they believed the ACC franchise would only be rescinded if premier programs like Florida State agreed to join the SEC instead of the Big Ten.
The numbers being tossed around don’t give the Seminoles much of a choice in the matter. Either join the SEC or Big Ten to gain the funding to climb back into college football’s elite, or risk competing with the two mega-conferences while running a shrinking budget that will pale in comparison to what the big names in sports they will be able to provide.
Stick to NoleGameday for more coverage of this developing situation.
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