GREEN BAY, Wis. – Exactly three weeks from today, the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings will begin the 2022 NFL season with the 125th game in the history of their border battle.
At SI Sportsbook, Green Bay is a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 48.5 points. At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Packers are 2-point favorites; 53 percent of the money and 57 percent of the bets are on the Vikings.
Two of the offensive stars, Packers running back Aaron Jones and Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson, will feature prominently in this early NFC North matchup. Over the past two seasons, Jones has averaged 66.0 yards per game. According to Inside Edge, the Packers went 15-0 when Jones eclipsed that mark. Meanwhile, since entering the NFL in 2021, Jefferson has averaged 91.0 receiving yards per game. When he was held under that number, the Vikings were just 6-13.
A big side note to the game will be Za’Darius Smith going up against his former team. In 2019 and 2020, Smith recorded 26 sacks, but barely played last season due to a back injury that required surgery. The Packers released him to help him get under the salary cap, and Smith signed with the Vikings.
“I can’t wait to get a chance to stand up [the Packers] in the first game and look at that look on Aaron Rodgers’ face when he sees me on the other side of the ball,” Smith said The Rich Eisen Show In May.
With help from Will Ragatz of Inside the Vikings, here’s a look at the teams through the first week of the preseason.
Packers Strength
For years, that would have been a no-brainer answer. Aaron Rodgers. Period. No longer. While Rodgers scoffs at the idea, it will be a defense-oriented team to start the season. There is not a single weakness in the starting defensive line-up. Defensive lineman Kenny Clark, inside linebacker De’Vondre Campbell and cornerback Jaire Alexanders have Pro Bowls/All-Pros on their resumes, and outside linebacker Rashaan Gary is a budding star. The cornerback trio of Alexander, Eric Stokes and Rasul Douglas is about as good as it gets, and first-round pick Quay Walker looks like a nail in the head with Campbell.
Viking power
With all due respect to their starting offensive tackles and rushers, the Vikings’ biggest strength is their skill-position talent. There are only a few teams in the league — the Bengals and Raiders among them — that can compete with the star power and depth that Minnesota has at receiver, running back and tight end. It starts with third-year superstar Justin Jefferson, who is the heavy favorite to lead the league in receiving yards. When healthy, Dalvin Cook is one of the most dangerous running backs in the league. Adam Thielen is still an elite red zone threat; only Davante Adams and Mike Evans have more touchdown receptions over the last two years than Thielen’s 24. Add in KJ Osborne, Irv Smith Jr., Alexander Matheson and a few other young players, and the Vikings have an incredible array of weapons at Kirk Cousins’ disposal.
Weakness of packers
Let’s assume left tackle David Bakhtiari successfully returns to the field and returns to form after a third procedure on his left knee. He missed almost all of last season and came off the PUP on Sunday. So, maybe Aaron Rodgers will have to find an open receiver, but will one open up? The trade of Davante Adams to the Raiders left Rodgers without a proven No. 1 threat for the first time in his career. When push comes to shove against a really good defense, will any of the group of Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb or rookies Romeo Dubs and Christian Watson be able to create separation and big plays?
The weakness of the Vikings
If I had to focus on one player, it would be center Gareth Bradbury. More generally, this is the cornerback position. The Vikings’ No. 1 corner is 32-year-old Patrick Peterson (pictured), who has lost a few steps from his peak days in Arizona. Peterson’s intelligence, instincts and veteran experience make him a solid player, but he’s definitely susceptible to getting beat by speed. Also likely to start on the outside in Week 1 is Cameron Dantzler, a third-year player who has been fairly inconsistent to start his Vikings career. Dantzler has been on the wrong end of too many big plays at big times since coming into the league. Rookie cornerback Andrew Booth Jr. has room to develop and starting nickel Chandon Sullivan is just solid.
Packers Question
For all the focus on the receiver corps, the offensive line option is a hot mess. Bakhtiari was on a Hall of Fame trajectory before suffering a torn ACL on Dec. 31, 2020. He played in one game last season and the Packers are crossing their fingers and toes as he tries to make another comeback. Elgton Jenkins, a 2020 Pro Bowl guard who successfully filled in for Bakhtiari last year, returned last week from his own ACL injury. Assuming they stay healthy, Green Bay’s line could be really good. But as Bakhtiari’s odyssey showed last year, who knows? And if things go wrong, what could go wrong with Josh Nieman and Royce Newman blocking Daniel Hunter and Za’Darius Smith?
Viking Question
Could Kevin O’Connell start working as a player and head coach? O’Connell doesn’t have much experience calling in the NFL, with Sean McVay handling those duties for the Rams. The Vikings need him to perform at a high level in that regard right away, because the Packers’ defense will present a huge challenge. There’s a lot of pressure on Kirk Cousins to get the ball to his playmakers and win plays at a high rate, something he’s only done once in his career (2019). But Cousins is also somewhat of a known commodity as a QB. It’s up to O’Connell to put Cousins in positions to succeed, call the right plays and manage plays effectively. That’s a lot on the shoulders of a first-time head coach.
Vikings Flavor in Green Bay
No team loves former Packers more than the Vikings. The only former Vikings player on the roster, kicker Gabe Brkic, was released last week after a horrific camp in place of the injured Mason Crosby. However, during this year’s NFL Draft, general manager Brian Gutekunst sent his two second-round picks to Minnesota to move up to No. 34 overall to select receiver Christian Watson. Watson has an elite combination of height and speed. With him ready after minor knee surgery, the Packers are counting on him to join Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams in the team’s pantheon of great second-round receivers.
Packers Flavor in Minnesota
As Bill mentioned, there are a bunch of revenge game storylines for the Vikings heading into this one. Za’Darius Smith and Chandon Sullivan will play against their former team for the first time, and Minnesota will count on both of them to play well. You know Smith is salivating at the prospect of firing Aaron Rodgers and celebrating with his new BFF Danielle Hunter in front of a raucous crowd at US Bank Stadium. It’s not just these two players. Vikings OLB coach Mike Smith and assistant head coach Mike Pettine are former Packers coaches who would love to help Rodgers close out the season.
The Packers will win because…
Green Bay’s passing game may not be great as it leans away from Davante Adams, but the Vikings’ secondary may not be very good either. A high quality running game should prevent too many third and long passes, situations that will play into the hands of Minnesota’s pass rush. Meanwhile, the strength of Green Bay’s defensive front will be tough for any team. The additions of tight end Jarran Reed and first-rounder Quay Walker could help shut down Dalvin Cook, and Rashaan Gary, Preston Smith and Kenny Clark should challenge Kirk Cousins’ ability to create too many big plays with top receiver Justin Jefferson.
The Vikings will win because…
They have the talent to put up points for any defense in the NFL, even one as great as Green Bay’s. The ideal scenario is for the Vikings to feed off the energy in their home stadium and push Jefferson and Cook to an early lead. From there, Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter can pin their ears and go after Rodgers. The Packers’ lack of talent at receiver makes the Vikings’ weakness at cornerback less important, and the Vikings have players in the front seven — in addition to edges, they have great DTs ( Dalvin Tomlinson and Harrison Phillips ) and ILBs ( Eric Kendricks and Jordan Hicks ) — to slow down Green Bay’s dangerous Aaron Jones-AJ Dillon RB duo. Also, if it comes down to a one-two punch, Greg Joseph has had an incredible training camp.
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