from Panayotovich himself
FOX sports betting analyzer
IN USFL The semifinals begin this Saturday at Tom Benson Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio, and the boy is expecting a pair of doubles.
First, the New Jersey Generals (-4.5, O / U 47.5) battle the Philadelphia Stars, while the Birmingham Stallions (-5, O / U 44.5) face the New Orleans Breakers in the night cup.
I reached out to my friend Eric Iger for his two cents in both contests. Iger led research and development for Pro Football Focus, and his ability to create power ratings and fine-tune advanced analysis gave him a much higher position in bookmakers throughout the USFL season.
For starters, Eager expects fireworks in the matinee.
“Philadelphia and New Jersey are the two best fouls in the league in terms of expected added points and the two worst defenses in terms of added expected points,” he told FOX Sports. “I don’t think any of these teams will stop anyone. If the pace starts fast, be careful.”
It costs nothing that both teams had a 7-3 for “Over” this season.
Birmingham is the favorite for 5 points at night, but Iger does not agree with this betting line because the Stallions have enjoyed a lot of home cooking this season, as every game was played in Alabama.
Given that the stallions are entering the highway for the first time, analysts believe that the distribution of points is a few points too high.
“He had a legal home advantage for Birmingham this year,” explained Iger. “The Stallion Games obviously had the most fans in the stands and with these playoff matches that were played in Canton, this advantage disappeared.
“Birmingham has -4.5 or 5 and I make the game more like Birmingham -2. I like New Orleans even with all their flaws. You have two solid defenses, and the New Orleans unit is a little better. the dog and “Under”.
Scoring was not exactly a reliable system for USFL bettors during the regular season. The favorites took care of the business directly (30-10 SU), but were nothing special against the spread (21-19 ATS).
“The favorites reflected early,” Iger recalled. “They were 3-1 in week 1 and 3-1 in week 2, then the books caught on. As the end of the season approached, cover percentages dropped dramatically for favorites. Take a team like the Stallions. They did not cover the three-week spread as a favorite.
“And let’s not forget that there were a lot of covers against Pittsburgh. The Mowlers (1-9 SU with a difference of -96 points) were eight or nine points worse than the average team on a neutral field. They all fought right against them, which distorted the ATS record for favorites.
“Overall, it was difficult to earn points in this league.”
Eiger is definitely attracted to the two teams that are scoring points this Saturday and he does not rule out the possibility of either of them winning two games to take the crown this inaugural season.
But there is always a method for madness with mathematics.
“With four teams left, you’ll never get a good enough advantage by taking outsiders to win championships in the futures market,” Eiger said. “You always get a better bet when you transfer the money line.
“Instead of taking New Orleans [+320 at FOX Bet] or Philadelphia [+333 at FOX Bet] to win everything, you bet the money line in the first round and if it wins, you can decide if you want to run it back in the title game.
“It won’t surprise me in the least if both outsiders win outright.”
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He will probably choose against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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