Why the “logic of sports betting” is mandatory

Before sports betting, I played poker. I played often, worked in the media and handed out some of the biggest cash games. I did everything. I often go back to my days of great play because I really feel that the skills I learned from No-limit Hold’em have carried over into all other aspects of my life.

In my debut series of reading books, I talked about The Mental Game of Poker, written by Jared Tendler. I can’t say how useful the book was not only for playing poker in the past, not only for my career in sports betting, but also now to learn how to manage mental changes in life.

This time I will refer to a book that is more directly related to my current role. The book: The Logic of Sports Betting. One of its authors is Ed Miller, whom I know … through poker. Full circle. Whether you are new to sports betting or a veteran, this book is a must. Whether you’re creating your own models or just betting on Gambling Twitter, you need it. It covers topics such as how to look for weak markets and avoid strong markets, how to take advantage of money and how to take advantage of sports betting marketing tactics such as deposit bonuses and raises. The chapters are short, easy to read and the information provided is evergreen.

Tendler’s book was all about thinking, but Miller’s book is for those who want to learn about the inner workings of sports betting. Whether you want to gamble professionally or just become more educated in space, Miller and his co-author Matthew Davidow do just that. As a content creator, industry analyst, and client, I contacted Miller directly to find out his thoughts on some of the topics you’ll find in the book.

“The Logic of Sports Betting” by Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow

Why “fading society” is not enough to be profitable

With the fast approach of the 2022 football season, I remembered one thing I hear most often, like every day, one phrase most often uttered in February: “Fading audience!” I’ve always felt indifferent to hearing this phrase. As an analyst, I personally do not use public money as part of my analysis. In fact, I don’t even look at this data. Do I need to reconsider?

According to Miller, there is a flaw in logic. The idea is that betting lines are set by the market (correctly) and that the weight of money moves the lines (also correctly) and therefore, if the lines are driven by “dumb money” (the public), then there must be winning bets from the other country. ”

Let’s step back and think about the full range. Bettors tend to think of bookmakers in terms of one or two books they personally use. However, there are thousands of sports bookmakers around the world, and in fact only a small number are truly influential in defining lines and moving markets, and these books take almost no public money compared to the money bet by professionals and unions.

Miller says the downside is how the betting markets work. The reality is that the opinions of these pro-bettors and unions are reflected in the ranks, not in public opinion. “So you really have to fade the public as gamblers? “It may be a little better to be against the audience than average with it, but this idea alone is not enough to be profitable. ” Use public money as a tool, but don’t fade away blindly, because that’s something your favorite betting person says you do and sounds great.

Withdrawal option: Use it or leave it?

The latest addition to betting options is the draw option. It can be used as a safety net for some, such as withdrawing money if things seem too complicated, or clicking the “lose less” button to save your bank. But does using the download feature actually hurt you? “For the most part, sports bookmakers will apply more vig to bets that are branded as cash outs.” Remember that when it comes to betting, you think about the price first and foremost. “A good rule of thumb is that if you want to withdraw money to ‘lock in a profit’, then it will probably cost you money over time.”

Given that cash outing is just a new bet, unless you’re really familiar with live betting or second-half betting, then “it’s safest to treat the withdrawal button as a fee to the sports book for the privilege of get your money out of the bet and act accordingly. ”

Are the reinforcements playing or fading?

Is it just me or do promotions always seem to lose? “Sports bookmakers don’t have a crystal ball to know if the bets they raise will win or lose.” Fu Okay, so there’s no conspiracy. However, like any other bet, the answer to whether or not you should participate in the push boils down to math. Use this example from Miller to help you determine if gain is a good option or not.

“Let’s say the bet usually pays +300 and some mathematicians suggest it should reach about 20 percent of the time. This is a bad bet without a raise, because for every $ 500 you bet, you expect to win only once and win a $ 400 ticket.

You can lose an average of $ 100 for every $ 500 you bet.

If the bookmaker increases the game to +350, it’s still a bad bet, because now, even though you win $ 450 instead of $ 400, you still expect to lose $ 50 on average for every $ 500 bet.

If a book increases the bet to +450, now it’s a good bet because you win $ 550, which is more than the $ 500 investment.

Betting for betting

Sometimes I fall into downturns, where I may take betting “too seriously.” Look, we all want to win and lose, it sucks, but Miller says, “betting is for fun.” Whether you’re betting $ 10 or $ 1000, the same goes for everyone. “The moment you stop having fun with him is the moment you have to think seriously about whether you want to keep doing it at all.

This is just an excerpt from what “The logic of sports betting ” must offer. This is a good reference when you are stuck, you need to refresh or you are just trying to expand your knowledge base with a new skill. We’re all trying to be better sports betting, and Miller and Davidov wrote something to help us do just that.

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